Bagan Pinang - An early Analysis

The election commission has fixed Sept 14 as the date to determine the nomination and polling dates for the N31 Bagan Pinang seat in Negeri Sembilan that fell vacant following the death of incumbent assemblyperson Azman Mohammad Noor, of Barisan Nasional last Friday. A very critical By-Election, whichever way you see it. A win for BN, its status quo, a BIG win for BN would embolden Umno to play even more vicious racial card and a big setback and may stall PR's momentum in their quest for Putrajaya. A win for PR... well lets keep it for later. Me humbly thinks any by-elections from now till the next GE would see stakes rising to astronomical proportions.


Bagan Pinang is one of the 5 state seats that falls under P132 Teluk Kemang and Bagan Pinang is also one of the two state seats in P132 Teluk Kemang held by BN. The other 3 are being held by PR component parties PKR (2), DAP (1). BN has also exhorted that Bagan Pinang is a BN "stronghold". I would believe so. With 5000+ postal votes in Fixed Deposit, I do not see why they should not be confident in retaining this seat.

Let us do some mathematics on why BN can be cocky about their chances here. Considering the breakdown as accurate, Non-Malays makes up 34% of the population which translates out to be 4800+ voters, leaving the remaining 9300+ Malay voters but unfortunately 5000 of these would come from postal votes, thus remaining only 4300 or so Malay votes to be casted independently.

Now if we were to take that turnout at 70% which is 5% lower than that during the 12th General Election (I would suppose the polling day would be a weekday to force the turnout to be lower) and we assume that across the board, 3300+ non Malays casted their votes, 3000+ Malays casted their votes and remaining 5000+ can play a major role in determining the winner or winner by whatever quantum that BN would like to make them look good.

Technically, PR will need to secure 90% of the non postal votes to secure victory in Bagan Pinang and that by a very slim margin of within 100+ votes. (That is assuming 5000+ postal votes show a 100% turnout). Now, how do I arrive at that.

Votes casted 3300+3000+5000 = 11300 votes.
That would give us a voter turnout of 79.62% overall.
Votes needed to win= 11300 x 50% = 5600+ votes.
Non Postal Votes casted = 6300 votes.
Votes needed from 6300 = 88.88%!


Scenario 2 (PR obtains 10% of postal votes cast)

Total votes casted = 11,300
Voter turnout = 79.62%
Votes needed to win = 5600-(10% x 5000) = 5100
Non Postal votes casted = 6300 votes
Votes needed from 6300 = 80.95%!

Can you people see now why it is an iron cast BN stronghold? If you assume Malay votes split right down the middle, PR will not win the seat even with 100% non-Malay votes. They will need at least 76.67% of the non Postal Malay votes casted to ensure victory for PR. Do you think that is possible?

Votes needed to win = 5600
Non Malay votes = 3300
Balance Malay votes required = 2300
Total non Postal Malay votes = 3000
% of non Postal malay votes required = 76.67%!

Possibility of BN winning with a majority greater than last General Election is good as they have in their posession 5000 ballot papers! But if a seat where they can manipulate almost 50% of the votes is lost, I do not know what could be worse for BN.

Fairus quit as Penang Deputy CM

The Malaysian Insider- Fairus Khairuddin, the Penang deputy chief minister, has quit, confirming swirling speculation about his position amid a cloud of suspicion over his conduct. The PKR man submitted his resignation to Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng of the DAP, and it has been accepted.

Lim made the announcement at a press conference in Penang today. However, the CM declined to disclose the reasons for Fairus’s resignation. But it is understood that the resignation was made on the instructions of Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim who is keen to contain any damage Fairus’s conduct would have on the Pakatan Rakyat alliance.

Fairus’s position as deputy chief minister had become untenable because he faces a mountain of allegations over suspected abuse of power. Speculation about Fairus’s resignation had surfaced this week after an anonymous text message was circulated saying that he was instructed to quit by Anwar over allegations of abuse of power. Fairus’s appointment as deputy chief minister has been a source of controversy and he has been told off by Anwar for not even visiting his constituency. He was also forced to quit as Penang Football Association president due to his lack of enthusiasm.

Speculation is also rife that he is one of two PKR leaders in Penang accused of corrupt dealings involving a quarry. Lim said today Fairus’s effective resignation date will be April 8. The DCM will be on leave until then.
Fairus will continue as Penanti assemblyman.
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Lim Guan Eng declined to disclosed the reason for resignation? Come on, LGE, where is your CAT!? Is there something to hide?

Fairus is quitting because of something wrong he did or something he should be doing but did not. Whatever the reason is, if LGE provide some explanation, at least it shows that his adminsitration has set certain standard of performance that was not met. It would send a strong signal to all and sundry that his administration do not tolerate slackers, unlike the BN adminstration that he has always been critical of.

LGE's silence in this matter will render his other strong statements as mere hot air or "cakap tak serupa bikin". People have high expectation of him. As with Badawi, the higher the expectation, the bigger the disappointment and the bigger the back lash.

Unless LGE is under a gag order.

Pakatan Rakyat adminstration is barely a year old and it has to face entrenched pro-BN mentality, untangle previous messes, learn on the job and overcome sceptism. I can understand and tolerate hornest mistakes but not practising what it has been preaching would not be very welcome.

Learn to work together

The past one week or so has been a turbulent one.

Some say it has created a mark in Malaysian history.

Some people are excited, some are doubtful, some are scared and some are just frustrated and even angry.


Well, if you are a supporter of BN I understand why you are angry and upset. Perhaps you need to reflect why so many people do not share the same sentiment as you. Perhaps if you stepped out of your comfortable shell and realize that life is more than just looking after your rice bowl perhaps you will see where we are coming from.


On the other hand, we now have another bunch of angry people. People who chose new leaders, something that has not happened for the past 40 years. Now when these people choose new leaders, they do not expect to see those elected people acting like spoilt brats over candy! Buck up and start acting like leaders! Yes, there are many capable people in PKR PAS and DAP so of course there may be a few disputes as to who holds what post and how many exco members each party has. BUT do not forget the BIGGER PICTURE.


Work together well now, show the people your ability to lead, learn to give and take and eventually there may be a bigger mandate the next election which means you will have so much to govern there will be no problem in everybody having a bigger pie to share! This is of course provided the state governments of Perak, Kelantan, Penang, Selangor and Kedah actually doesn't tear themselves to pieces because some think that they have more authority to be there or because their party won more seats.


Well one wonders if they remember signing the petition for Barisan Rakyat agreeing to work together to deny BN a 2/3 majority. Perhaps they dont remember their promises? It goes beyond denying them a 2/3 majority, it is also about carrying out their manifesto and working for us the people!

So any grievances faced, why not bring it to the people? or let a neutral party decide? after all if isn't that what democracy is about? or is Malaysia still not there yet?

KeADILan HAS CLEAR AND FIRM STAND ON NEP / PENDIRIAN KeADILan TERHADAP DEB JELAS DAN TEGAS

KeADILan HAS CLEAR AND FIRM STAND ON NEP /PENDIRIAN KeADILan TERHADAP DEB JELAS DAN TEGAS



Saturday, 15 March 2008

--PRESS STATEMENT--

by Dr. Syed Husin AliDeputy President/Timbalan Presiden, KeADILanMarch 15, 2008

Parti Keadilan Rakyat (People's Justice Party) has a clear and firm stand on the New Economic Policy (NEP). As explained by the Ketua Umum of the Party, Anwar Ibrahim in his 20-page article as well as through his many public pronouncements and ceramah, and further reaffirmed in several Party documents, including the Election Manifesto, we intend to replace the NEP with the Malaysian Economic Agenda. The NEP, after nearly 40 years is already anachronistic. It has been abused by a handful leaders and cronies in Umno-Bn to rob the country of its wealth to enrich themselves, in the name of the Malays as a whole. It has led to discriminatory practices that are against the spirit of justice and fairness for all Malaysians, particularly the poor, marginalised and disadvantaged groups of all races. The Malaysian Economic Agenda aspires to:

(a) institute and implement fair, just and equitable redistribution of the wealth in the country;

(b) fight against and finally abolish the evil practices of corruption, cronyism and nepotism and ensure the award of contracts and projects are done in open and transparent manner;

(c) continue the policy of positive discrimination in favour of poor dan deprived Bumiputera while at the same time giving equal opportunities to poor and deprived non-Bumpiputera on the basis of need and not racial greed;

(d) utilise the wealthy resources of the country to provide better social facilities – especially education, health and housing – for the poor, irrespective of ethnic backgrounds; and

(e) generate pro-people development and strengthen the competitive capacity of Malaysia so that she can stand tall with all developed countries, starting with those in Asia.

Those leaders of Umno-Bn and the media they own that accuse Parti Keadilan Rakyat as having no stand on the NEP and on other ways of improving the lot of the poor, marginalized and disadvantaged Malays are deliberately indulging in lies to mislead the public. We wish to emphasise that a policy of positive discrimination in favour of all Malaysians who are poor, marginalized and disadvantaged will benefit the Malay rakyat more, because they form the big majority of this category of people.

--- Kenyataan Media --- Parti Keadilan Rakyat (KeADILan) mempunyai pendirian yang jelas dan tegas terhadap Dasar Ekonomi Baru (DEB). Seperti yang dijelaskan oleh Ketua Umum keADILan, Anwar Ibrahim dalam sebuah artikel 20 halaman dan diterangkannya melalui beberapa kenyataan serta ceramah umum, dan ditegaskan dalam beberapa dokumen Parti, termasuk Manifesto Pilihanraya, kami berhasrat untuk menggantikan DEB dengan Agenda Ekonomi Malaysia. Selepas dilaksanakan hampir 40 tahun, DEB ternyata sudah ketinggalan zaman. Ia disalahgunakan oleh segelintir pemimpin Umno-Bn serta kroni-kroni mereka untuk merompak kekayaan negara bagi mengkayakan diri sendiri atas nama seluruh rakyat Melayu. Ia telah mengakibatkan amalan diskriminasi kaum, bertentangan dengan semangat memberi keadilan dan kesaksamaan kepada semua rakyat Malaysia, terutama sekali mereka dari golongan miskin, terpinggir dan terbiar dari semua kaum. Agenda Ekonomi Malaysia berhasrat untuk:

(a) memperkenal dan melaksanakan dasar pembahagian kekayaan negara yang adil, seimbang serta saksama;

(b) memerangi dan akhirnya membenteras amalan jijik korupsi, kronisme serta nepotisme dan memastikan pemberian kontrak serta projek dilakukan secara terbuka dan telus;

(c) meneruskan dasar memberi pertolongan kepada golongan Bumiputera yang miskin serta terbiar tetapi pada masa yang sama memberi peluang yang sejajar kepada golongan bukan Bumiputra yang miskin, terpinggir serta terbiar, atas asas keperluan dan bukan kemakan kaum;

(d) menggunakan sumber kekayaan negara untuk menyediakan kemudahan sosial yang lebih baik – terutama pendidikan, kesihatan dan perumahan – untuk golongan miskin dan susah tanpa mengira latarbelakang kaum; dan

(e) menjana pembangunan yang menguntungkan rakya serta membina kapasiti bersaing supaya Malaysia dapat berdiri sama tinggi dengan semua negara maju, bermula dengan yang di Asia.

Pemimpin-pemimpin Umno-Bn dan media mereka kuasai yang menuduh kononnya Parti Keadilan Rakyat tidak mempunyai pendirian terhadap DEB dan cara-cara untuk mempertingkat taraf hidup orang Melayu yang miskin, terpinggir dan tercicir sebenarnya berdusta dan segaja cuba hendak menipu dan menyelewengkan perhatian rakyat. Kami menegaskan dasar memberi keutamaan untuk kebajikan golongan miskin, terpinggir akan lebih banyak memberikan keuntungan kepada rakyat Melayu, kerana merekalah yang merupakan majoriti paling ramai di dalam categori ini.

Homecoming: A resident returns to Wangsa Maju

...and shares frank thoughts in this mail.



Hi, fellow wangsa majurian.

I am so uplifted to see your blog. Finally someone else who lives within the vicinity of this so called BN stronghold area with a voice!



I recently moved back to Wangsa Maju after 2 years of living in Damansara Utama and sadly, it has not been a sweet homecoming. Although the PJ area is not perfect, but the vast disparity between public safety and community life there compared to here makes me feel like I wished I never came back here.



I started living in Wangsa Maju since I was 6, today i am 22. Although there were a few moves in between I have mainly grown up and spent my childhood years watching this community grow and going to an adjacent school. Ever heard of SMK Seksyen 5 Wangsa Maju?



Today I am in my final year of LLB. In my area on the outset everything looks the same, but the sad fact is it is no longer the warm and friendly SAFE community it used to be.



Besides rising crime rates, the severe conditions of the road has been brought to my notice since about 6 months ago.



It makes me wonder WHAT THE HELL IS YEW TEONG LOOK DOING?IF YOU HAVE TIME TO POST YOUR BN POSTERS ALL AROUND CARREFOUR ,YOU CANT EVEN DO A SIMPLE JOB LIKE JAGA LONGKANG AND FIX POTHOLES?



Yes of course I'm sure he has other things to do, like represent the 'people'. Funny though, any of these people seen him before?



By the way, if you would like more posts please send me a mail and let me know. I am sorry i do not have a current blog due to time constraints but you can look me up in (edited)



I haven't even started yet on how schools in this area are run which is the snowball effect of having an incompetent and racially divisive political party in power.



By the way I am an avid supporter of the Barisan Rakyat and look forward to a day when we are no longer malay, chinese or indian but are one and all Bangsa Malaysia.



Yours truly,

Kell