A 10 minutes analysis of GE 12 from a faulty crystal ball

Number of Parliament seats GE 12 Total 222

Number of seats won by BN 30 (14% of 222)

Number of seats won by BN 24 (11%)

Peninsular Malaysia
Number of seats won by BN 86 (39%)

Total seats won by BN 140 (63%)

Total seats won by Pakatan 82 (37%)


To gain control of federal governmentship, Pakatan need to secure 30 more seats.
That would leave BN with 140 - 30 = 120 and PR with 82 + 30 = 122

Can this happen?
- maybe, maybe not

What factors can help Pakatan Rakyat do to get these seats?
- get more younger people to vote

- Pakatan Rakyat can proof their worth as administrators

- Pakatan Rakyat don't shoot themselves in the foot

- BN shoot themselves more often in the foot

- EC would do what other developed countries' EC equivalent would do

Where are Pakatan Rakyat going to get the other 30 seats?
- Sarawak and Sabah, not likely, I can't see East Malaysians will change the way they vote and Pakatan machinery there do not look strong and the logistic is daunting. Seat allocation agreement has to be settled before there is hope in any notable progress.The best they can hope for is to get a few more seats here and there.

- Terengganu? They were under PAS for a term and things look rosy for UMNO there at the moment. Presently BN has 6 seats compared to 2 for Pakatan so there is room for improvement here for Pakatan

- Negeri Sembilan : PR fell 3 seats short to capture the state...hmm...let's see how Bagan Pinang pans out. For Dewan Rakyat, it is BN 5, Pakatan 3 so there could be tight enough for a swing or no more room for improvement for Pakatan.

- Johor (Pakatan won 2 seats out of 26), Pahang (Pakatan 2 outof 14): UMNO stronghold but the gold mine scenario in Raub has given Pakatan Rakyat a rallying point there

- Perak : Pakatan Rakyat has a strong case to reclaim the state and increase number of Parliment seats there. GE 12, BN won 13 seats vs Pakatan's 11 seats

- Melaka: Between N Sembilan and Johor but I feel BN still has the upper hand here. Pakatan only has 1 seat here out of 6.

- Perlis : Close to Kedah, can PAS extend their influence into Perlis? BN currently holds all 3 seats here.

- Penang : If YAB Lim Guan Eng can ahieve more and complain less (although I empathise with him) DAP and other Pakatan component parties will do well to maintain the number of seats (11 vs 2 for Parliament)

- Selangor : BN has 5 out of 22 so Pakatan could have gone as far as it can here? Perhaps the Selcat findings can swing another seat of two? If there is another power grab as rumour has it, then there could be some angry voters by next GE.

- Kedah : The PAS MB may need to learn up "PAS untuk Semua" to please and maintain support from "Semua" as Indians and Chinese votes did contributed to the PAS victory as Malay votes were almost equally split, I think.

- Kelantan : ok, I feel Pakatan can rely on this one

- Putrajaya and Labuan : shouldn't be a seat for them at all.

Is the slim majority enough? Any frogs around?

Let's revisit this come the next opportunity. Your input very much well come.


  1. WT, as I have said... PR can gain a few seats in Peninsular and lose a few at current scenario. The best PR can do is to leave BN with only Pahang, Johor and Melaka. They can take the lion's share of Parliamentary seats in Peninsular but it is NOT good enough to make Govt.

    PR needs Sabah and Sarawak badly. 30 additional seat will give a very slim simple majority is NOT good enough. Wads of cash will be dangled and it is incentive enough for some one term politician to hop. The result has to be decisive. They need to find at least 10 more seats in Peninsular, at least 15 seats in Sarawak and 15 seats in Sabah. PR needs to sit down and strategize which seats they can target. My simple look at things will put Terengganu, Johor and NS as the potential states in Peninsular. Pahang... tough. Incumbent PM's state and with the amount of money poured into Pahang I see it as tough and the possibility of PR losing their seats there are higher than them gaining new ones.

    Sabah, most seats BN won with very comfortable majority except for 2. Sandakan and KK. So we hope Jeffrey Kittingan can cook up some miracle there and hopefully all the opposition parties there can have a common goal and understanding.

    Sarawak.. same story as Sabah except for Sarikei and Limbang. PKR and DAP will have to set aside their differences. Chien Jien and Dominique must solve their animosity if there is to be any meaningful effort by PR Sarawak to move forward on a common platform.

    Tough? Yes.


  2. thanks MJ for your well spread analysis, a useful sounding board

  3. Yes, hard and tough. Still we have to do our best to wake up the Sabahan....to educate the people, try to get more new voter, ...any thing...