A Closer look at Migration trends and forecasts

1 Shows the trendline plotted from the 2010 (previous year) World Bank migration data. Back in 2010, the figure 2,357,603 was the forecast number of immigrants coming into Malaysia. This figure is higher than the 1.8 million number provided by the Jabatan Imigresen a year later.

2 The 1.8 million above excludes expatriates (which makes up a small proportion only of total number immigrants) and mainly comprises of what is depicted in the piechart below. It is interesting to see the actual figure of 1.8 million being much lower than prior year and what was originally forecast. The maid-crisis last year definitely had an impact on migration figures.

3 Shows 2,227,603 in terms of people moving out from Malaysia from the 2010 World Bank data. This figures is however a forecast figure done in 2010.

4 Shows the highest case scenario of emigrants from the latest 2011 World Bank report.

5 Shows the lowest case scenario of emigrants from the latest 2011 World Bank report. Interesting to see both 4 & 5 is lower than prior year forecast of 2,227,603?.

Anyhow, there is an astounding jump from 1995 (1,055,870 Malaysians moving out) to 2005 (1,879,208 Malaysians moving out) and I wonder what are the causes for the lower figures in 2010 ie lower trend of people moving out of Malaysia. However we can't escape the fact that year-on-year based on the World Bank migration data, about 1 million people move out of Malaysia annually. This figure is high comparing to Malaysia's low number of personal income tax payer pool of about only 2 million people.

Major discrepancy in Immigration numbers

Only after I've made the blog posting here, and subsequently read the World Bank's Brain Drain report, I discovered a mistake had been made in my blog. I should have reviewed the World Bank report first instead of just relying on figures from Jabatan Imigresen. That is because there is a huge discrepancy between the Imigresen and the World Bank migration number.

Below are excerpts from both World Bank and Jabatan Imigresen.

Above: Slide presentation from Jabatan Imigresen. The figure of 1.8 million inbound migration is reasonably  supported  by detailed breakdown of nationality but the outbound migration figure (785,000) is vague and nowhere near World Bank figures.

Above: From the fourteenth and one-hundred-thirty-sixth pages of the World Bank Brain Drain Report- big gap betweenthe two reports.

There is obviously a big difference between 785,000 (Jabatan Imigresen figure) and the 1 million plus (lowest World Bank estimation of outbound migrants). I doubt I have the power to summon the World Bank for detailed workings of their figures but as a rakyat I need to question Jabatan Imigresen and Department of Statistics on the quality of their public presentations.

Look at the quality of  'statistics' published at the Imigresen website here:

It is also obvious that either the quality of employee skills in Jabatan Imigresen and Jabatan Statistik is so bad; or there is a deliberate act to release false data deemed as sensitive to the public. Maybe the Jabatan Imigresen figure of 785,000 is just an 'anggaran' but it's an anggaran so inaccurate that it cannot fit into my regression line*.

*The long story on regression line here.

Najib's 15%

'Professionals' are doctors, lawyers, accountants and other persons who undergo specialized training, usually belonging to an association which governs the quality of the vocation they practice. They are often regarded as highly educated and known as the 'white-collared' people. According to the Ministry of Human Resources (MHR) and Department of Statistics there were 67,310 job vacancies in the year 2010 with regards to the 'professional' category. If you think this number is not too big, think again. In 2004 there were only 5,187 registered vacancies. This makes it a 1300% increase from the years 2004 to 2010.

The trend is somewhat similar for technicians and associate professional vacancies registered with the MHR:

Kindly note assumptions number 1 to 3 at the bottom of this article whereby it is stated that private firms are not required to register unfilled positions with the MHR. It is correct to say this because private firms will normally recruit job positions on their own and not go through any government-linked agencies. Hence the actual number of unfilled positions in the Malaysian job market is higher than the MHR published statistics discussed here.

If we look at the snapshot of 2010 registered unfilled jobs, 'elementary occupations' hits the top spot. Such jobs are related to 'pekerjaan asas' such as maids, general workers, laborers and so on.

Zooming in on 'elementary occupations' the run chart below shows a steep climb from the years 2004 to 2010, a growth exceeding 13000% (10 times more that professionals) - caused by an acute shortage of workers in this category.

However the situation could have been worse. According to Tuan Haji Sabri, Deputy Director General of the Labor Department, in 2010, there were 785,000 Malaysians migrating out of the country and 1.8 million migrants into Malaysia. The 1.8 million migrants into Malaysia caught my eye because it appears that these migrants helped a little in easing the general worker shortage situation- the graph above could have been steeper. The breakdown of the 1.8 million in 2010 is as follows:

On the 785,000 Malaysians who migrated out of Malaysia, my take is that they are mostly professionals or semi-professionals who have gone out of this country. I do not have enough statistical evidence to show this (not my fault because I rely on published statistics only and I don't know why the Government has stopped releasing demographics like these since the year 2005) but being a professional myself who is in touch with the Asian region I am very confident that I am correct in saying that most the 785,000 migrants last year belonged to such a group and their reasons for migrating are push factors rather than pull factors. For me personally, it is a pain living in this country- the daily racism, the fear of political prosecution, the lack of religion freedom and so on.

Proponents of Ketuanan Melayu may ask me to leave this country on the next flight but they are ignorant of the fact that if hundreds of thousands of professionals like me leave Malaysia in this continuous trend within the next few years Vision2020 will never be achieved by 2020 and we will never ever be a developed country like we should be because of the lack of human capital.

I doubt Najib's 15% tax rate plus a couple of tax-free locally assembled cars through the Returning Experts Programme will do much to convince any professional who have made inroads in a foreign country to return home. For them the reasons of leaving the country is much more fundamental than lower tax rates and lower-priced cars (anyway, the pricing will never beat the prices and specs of cars sold in foreign countries). Najib needs to summon enough political will and balls to do the changes that needs to be done in Malaysia only then will people start coming back, tax breaks or not.

All sources of data are published figures from Bank Negara; Department of Labor, Department of Statistics and Ministry of Human Resources.


Assumptions on labor market statistics:

1. As at end-period. Data is not comparable with past series. With effect from May 2005, the registration period during which jobseekers are deemed to be actively seeking jobs using the Electronic Labour Exchange was lengthened to six months (three months previously)
2. The number of job vacancies could have been under-reported as it is not compulsory for firms to report vacancies to the Labour Department.
3. Includes public administration and defence, compulsory social security, education, health and social work, other community, social and personal service activities, private household with employed person, ex-territorial organisation and bodies.

Two sides of the coin

It seems fresh graduates of Malaysia in the 21st century have mostly been perceived as a rotten basket of apples. With the lights of student leaders making the most silly remarks about white school uniforms, and most recently yet again another racist remark by the wonderful UM graduate, who again fails not to remind me just how unwanted I am in this country:

Therefore, I as the Head of Graduates of University of Malaya would like to advice all our fellow graduates of University of Malaya to combine forces and prepare ourselves together with all the necessary knowledge and preparation before we continue our fight in the actual battle field. This advice implies mainly to our Malay Graduates. We must treasure the sacrifices made by our ancestors which tried so hard to ensure that Tanah Melayu ( Malay Land ) is free from the intrusion of alien races. We must not fall into the category of those who forgets their roots until they will be taken over by other races. Graduates must prove themselves that we are capable and the best choice to take over the throne of governing the country in the future. This implies with the theme of MPMUM Progressive, Dynamic, Professional. There is nothing more important that can compared to our always-sensitive and improving Graduates. I also would like to advice all Malay Graduates to prepare ourselves in facing all sorts of unpredicted challenges that may occur in near future, relating to the rise of our fellow citizens, in particular to the non-Malay races. Don’t let ourselves slack and allow our “enemies under the blankets to attack us” (direct translation from the Malay idiom). Don’t allow our Malaysia to fall into the hands of those who are irrelevant.

Again, I am reminded that I am an ALIEN and an ENEMY of the people. Me, who among my peers care most about bringing this country to a better, more competitive level which is eminent in this 'dog eat dog', 'survival of the fittest' world. I am your enemy. I will rob you. I will bring you to poverty. And I am categorized to be enemy of the state, because by no fault of my own, I was born in this country, with this skin colour, at this unfortunate time. This seems to be the ongoing trend of local graduates which I am glad to say most people share the same view on condemning them.

But let me again, seek to convince you that not all young Malaysians are warped and unthinking just like these rotten apples. I have been meeting many young Malaysians overseas, mostly professionals through the wonderful contraption called Facebook.

It delights me to find that there are many of them, although overseas because of better opportunities there(duh!) are very much in touch with the going-ons in our country. They, just as much as me love this country and do not want to see it go to ruin. These are young talents, hoping that Malaysia will progress to a better place so that they can come home and contribute to our country. Therefore, not all hope is lost. Not all of us young ones have rotten coconuts for heads and talents will return.

But for that to happen we must get rid of this age-old conditioning used by weak people who are afraid of challenge and moving forward. Instead they suppress others to show superiority and surround themselves with bigger idiots to make themselves feel smart. In today's world moving towards globalism, this idea will collapse, and they will drag us down with them.

So please, to all the people who know how to think...you know where you stand.

The Story of a Patriot

Not too long ago I got in touch with a former colleague who had migrated to Australia with his family more than 10 years ago. We exchanged life stories and everyone was doing fine. We share similarities- both our families were growing up and careers flourishing. The only difference that I was discontented socially and politically while my friend had adjusted himself in his new found country.



To leave or not to leave?



There are few who had that option to leave and wash their hands clean but did not. I found out that Wee Choo Keong was abroad working in England before the mid-80's when he was supposed to migrate to England for good. During his holidays back here somewhere in 1986, a land related incident cropped up in Kelantan and he stood and fought for a group of bullied people there... and succeeded in that case. The rest is history, as he stayed put in Malaysia till today.



He brushes this story off ('..don't have to write so much la..') but the people of Wangsa Maju ought to know whom they are voting for. We are at crossroads- whereby the power to change country and community is at reach. We must seize this chance. We may not be able to change this country a 100% but we'll leave a legacy that will be picked up by the next generation. Only one day left before the polls, go spread the word.

About blogger Resident.WangsaMaju

Best words which describe me: professional worker, good taxpayer, IT-savvy, proactive, patriotic, resident of Wangsa Maju (P.116), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

The words 'patriotic' and 'proactive' does not describe me until late February 2008- I have watched politics from the sidelines over the years. Yes, over the years watching the deterioration of the state and condition of this country. I'm deciding not to watch any longer and be a little more proactive to make this country a better place to live. I'm putting migration thoughts on hold and making a last call- hence the birth of this blog. Good living starts at home, that's why this blog is for Wangsa Maju. Wangsa Maju for Malaysia.