The election commission has fixed Sept 14 as the date to determine the nomination and polling dates for the N31 Bagan Pinang seat in Negeri Sembilan that fell vacant following the death of incumbent assemblyperson Azman Mohammad Noor, of Barisan Nasional last Friday. A very critical By-Election, whichever way you see it. A win for BN, its status quo, a BIG win for BN would embolden Umno to play even more vicious racial card and a big setback and may stall PR's momentum in their quest for Putrajaya. A win for PR... well lets keep it for later. Me humbly thinks any by-elections from now till the next GE would see stakes rising to astronomical proportions.
Bagan Pinang is one of the 5 state seats that falls under P132 Teluk Kemang and Bagan Pinang is also one of the two state seats in P132 Teluk Kemang held by BN. The other 3 are being held by PR component parties PKR (2), DAP (1). BN has also exhorted that Bagan Pinang is a BN "stronghold". I would believe so. With 5000+ postal votes in Fixed Deposit, I do not see why they should not be confident in retaining this seat.
Let us do some mathematics on why BN can be cocky about their chances here. Considering the breakdown as accurate, Non-Malays makes up 34% of the population which translates out to be 4800+ voters, leaving the remaining 9300+ Malay voters but unfortunately 5000 of these would come from postal votes, thus remaining only 4300 or so Malay votes to be casted independently.
Now if we were to take that turnout at 70% which is 5% lower than that during the 12th General Election (I would suppose the polling day would be a weekday to force the turnout to be lower) and we assume that across the board, 3300+ non Malays casted their votes, 3000+ Malays casted their votes and remaining 5000+ can play a major role in determining the winner or winner by whatever quantum that BN would like to make them look good.
Technically, PR will need to secure 90% of the non postal votes to secure victory in Bagan Pinang and that by a very slim margin of within 100+ votes. (That is assuming 5000+ postal votes show a 100% turnout). Now, how do I arrive at that.
Votes casted 3300+3000+5000 = 11300 votes.
That would give us a voter turnout of 79.62% overall.
Votes needed to win= 11300 x 50% = 5600+ votes.
Non Postal Votes casted = 6300 votes.
Votes needed from 6300 = 88.88%!
Scenario 2 (PR obtains 10% of postal votes cast)
Total votes casted = 11,300
Voter turnout = 79.62%
Votes needed to win = 5600-(10% x 5000) = 5100
Non Postal votes casted = 6300 votes
Votes needed from 6300 = 80.95%!
Can you people see now why it is an iron cast BN stronghold? If you assume Malay votes split right down the middle, PR will not win the seat even with 100% non-Malay votes. They will need at least 76.67% of the non Postal Malay votes casted to ensure victory for PR. Do you think that is possible?
Votes needed to win = 5600
Non Malay votes = 3300
Balance Malay votes required = 2300
Total non Postal Malay votes = 3000
% of non Postal malay votes required = 76.67%!
Possibility of BN winning with a majority greater than last General Election is good as they have in their posession 5000 ballot papers! But if a seat where they can manipulate almost 50% of the votes is lost, I do not know what could be worse for BN.