Bagan Pinang - An early Analysis

The election commission has fixed Sept 14 as the date to determine the nomination and polling dates for the N31 Bagan Pinang seat in Negeri Sembilan that fell vacant following the death of incumbent assemblyperson Azman Mohammad Noor, of Barisan Nasional last Friday. A very critical By-Election, whichever way you see it. A win for BN, its status quo, a BIG win for BN would embolden Umno to play even more vicious racial card and a big setback and may stall PR's momentum in their quest for Putrajaya. A win for PR... well lets keep it for later. Me humbly thinks any by-elections from now till the next GE would see stakes rising to astronomical proportions.


Bagan Pinang is one of the 5 state seats that falls under P132 Teluk Kemang and Bagan Pinang is also one of the two state seats in P132 Teluk Kemang held by BN. The other 3 are being held by PR component parties PKR (2), DAP (1). BN has also exhorted that Bagan Pinang is a BN "stronghold". I would believe so. With 5000+ postal votes in Fixed Deposit, I do not see why they should not be confident in retaining this seat.

Let us do some mathematics on why BN can be cocky about their chances here. Considering the breakdown as accurate, Non-Malays makes up 34% of the population which translates out to be 4800+ voters, leaving the remaining 9300+ Malay voters but unfortunately 5000 of these would come from postal votes, thus remaining only 4300 or so Malay votes to be casted independently.

Now if we were to take that turnout at 70% which is 5% lower than that during the 12th General Election (I would suppose the polling day would be a weekday to force the turnout to be lower) and we assume that across the board, 3300+ non Malays casted their votes, 3000+ Malays casted their votes and remaining 5000+ can play a major role in determining the winner or winner by whatever quantum that BN would like to make them look good.

Technically, PR will need to secure 90% of the non postal votes to secure victory in Bagan Pinang and that by a very slim margin of within 100+ votes. (That is assuming 5000+ postal votes show a 100% turnout). Now, how do I arrive at that.

Votes casted 3300+3000+5000 = 11300 votes.
That would give us a voter turnout of 79.62% overall.
Votes needed to win= 11300 x 50% = 5600+ votes.
Non Postal Votes casted = 6300 votes.
Votes needed from 6300 = 88.88%!


Scenario 2 (PR obtains 10% of postal votes cast)

Total votes casted = 11,300
Voter turnout = 79.62%
Votes needed to win = 5600-(10% x 5000) = 5100
Non Postal votes casted = 6300 votes
Votes needed from 6300 = 80.95%!

Can you people see now why it is an iron cast BN stronghold? If you assume Malay votes split right down the middle, PR will not win the seat even with 100% non-Malay votes. They will need at least 76.67% of the non Postal Malay votes casted to ensure victory for PR. Do you think that is possible?

Votes needed to win = 5600
Non Malay votes = 3300
Balance Malay votes required = 2300
Total non Postal Malay votes = 3000
% of non Postal malay votes required = 76.67%!

Possibility of BN winning with a majority greater than last General Election is good as they have in their posession 5000 ballot papers! But if a seat where they can manipulate almost 50% of the votes is lost, I do not know what could be worse for BN.

Exhortations of Righteousness? or Plain Bullshit?

I have stopped buying and reading newspapers, but, now and then one can't help but to note the headlies... (pun intended) on the local newspapers.. occasionally I also browse The Star for some "free" online propaganda.

Today is one of those days and The Star clearly chose to ignore to point out all those racist statements made by the PM Jibby's ministers in the past few months while chose to trumpet the PM's call to "Learn Tolerance" and "Mutual Respect" as espoused by the Quran. Everything points to the PM being "different" and definitely working towards the goal of 1Malaysia! Bravo!. If taken in isolation, it would have meant something in Malaysia but merge it with all the events that occur over the past few months, one really wonders if this PM has been out of the country and do not bother to keep in touch with local events or what?

Funnily though, after 52 years of BN rule, the country is still "learning to tolerate"? I mean, 52 years of BN rule! They have not achieved what they have been espousing all these while? On another level, would mutual understanding and respect be a more lasting basis of peace in Malaysia rather than tolerance? Tolerance as its means can have a breaking point. Would it not? Case in point.. there were many and the latest that people would have remembered would be the cow-head demonstration that it is now known. So, "tolerance"? Now, that the so called tolerance has hit the tipping point, the state government called for a "dialogue". A dialogue as we know is a diplomatic discussion by putting your grievances on the table and we try to understand the root of the problem and we "hope" to reach an understanding or rather a prelude to a more substantive discussion to resolve the whole matter. But, the "dialogue" as we all have come to understand today is a shouting match with no substance but obscenities and name calling. There is no desire whatsoever by the people who have "lost tolerance" to come with a mind to have a "dialogue". They seem hell bent on creating ruckus, intimidate and drive fear into others. Is this what our people have come to?

Back to the question, is the PM out of tune right now calling for us to learn tolerance? We have learnt tolerance for 52 years! And never once in the 52 years of tolerating have we ended up dragging something sacred and desecrate it in such a shameful manner. So, Mr. PM, you say we should learn more tolerance? Who should Mr. PM? Should we tolerate the abuser? or should we be more tolerant as the one receiving the abuses? Is your call to learn tolerance a one way traffic? Heads you win, tails I lose?

I would not go into detail as to their political affiliations of the people involved in the fracas of the demonstration and the dialogue session. Suffice to say that BN and Umno in particular have been supporting this group of people is enough to speak of your rant for tolerance and mutual respect is nothing more than a mantra that is ancient and is no longer applicable in Malaysia today.m

A Fool? Or Mere Posturing?

Firstly, thanks to Wee Tak for carrying my request to be a writer on this blog and also my thanks to resident.wangsamaju for believing that I can contribute worthy thoughts to be published in this blog. Its been sometime since I last wrote and I find it horribly tiring to maintain a blog and realize that it is indeed a full time job! Now come to think of it, which nincompoop that said that blog writers are unemployed and housewives?

Over the last few months, blogosphere in Malaysia has evolved tremendously. From mere rantings and sharing of opinion and views, they have become a major tool to get their message over to the masses in a very short time. Also since the so called "political tsunami" that hit Malaysia in March 08, the ancient and obese BN has also come to recognize that blogs and the internet has played a major role in their humiliatingly slim victory in the last general election, hence the machinery was started and "major overhaul" was made to make their presence felt in the blogosphere. To BN, its simple really.. dangle the $$$ in front of some bloggers and wallah! They now have a bunch of famous bloggers that will do their bidding.. have they succeeded? I think time will tell. I do not visit those blogs that often but once in a while I still do.. its good really food for thought to see where these people are heading.

Anyway, my thoughts today are not that ancient as March 08 but on some events that happened in our country lately, from the Perak fiasco, to Terengganu and to Selangor, spins, counter spins and further spins may have either left the people trying to make sense of what is happening to be in a state of being dizzy to being right down feeling completely hopeless that the country's politicians are beyond help and reproach.

There have been many articles pinned on how our Home Minister continues Umno's efforts to drive the wedge further between Malaysians through religion and racism from the recent cow head demonstration. Those articles have expressed enough on what needed to be said.

No, today, I would like to focus on the one man that has got no shame whatsoever. Implicated in various matters but never investigated or manage to get off the hook because he has been buddy buddy with the DG of Selangor's MACC. From shady land deals to working hand in glove with MACC in trying to bring down the current state government. From staying in a 24mil bungalow to his shiny botox-ed face.. from holing up in his office post March 08 shredding documents to his escapades to Disneyland on public funds... he is the famous MAT "BOTOX" TEMPE!

While the Home Minster was sent scurrying to contain his "extreme" defense of the cow-head demonstrators, this idiot of the same kind seem to want to continue to rant about it!

Among the gems of his quote (taken from Malaysiakini)

"The reason (the cow's head) was brought was to show that the (state government) had acted without thinking as the site (for the Hindu temple) was ready (in Section 18), so why relocate (to Section 23)?"

To show that the state government acted without thinking? Huh? So, does it mean that the non-Muslims can take a pig's head to show that the state government had acted without thinking as well?

"I don't know who brought it (the cow's head)... but for me, there is no sensitivity (involved) or link to the animal being holy for the Indians (Hindus)," he added.

No sensitivity involved.. because its to show displeasure to the state government? I really wonder how would a pig's head imply?

"That is up to him. I am not involved in that one. I am just commenting on it (the issue) because people have turned it into a racial issue and that is not right," he said.

His comments on Hishamuddin flopping to charge the demonstrators.... equally baffling. So, let me see, its okay for Umno leaders to have differing views, while if Pakatan members have differing views, (beer issue) then there is a disunity in Pakatan, but when Umno leaders have differing views... err.. its up to him? And nothing else? Hypocrite? A fool? or is it mere posturing to gain political mileage?

I simply do not understand how Malaysians can put up with these people! Can we as Malaysians, put a stop and say NO to these sort of politicians? Will the people of Sungai Panjang do the right thing next time out? Kick Mat Tempe out for good!

What does MCA stands for?

Normally I am more concern about Malaysia and Malaysians as a whole; rather than about my own race but today, maybe a bit too much of MCA news in the Chinese Press for the past few days, I caught a bug and decided to differ.

The Ong Tee Keat and Chua Soi Lek spat is nothing new. MCA No. 1 and No. 2 have always been like cats and dogs with the exception of Ong Ka Ting and Chan Kong Choy. (but in truth, my sister-in-law’s puppy grew up with her kittens and the beasts have more harmony between them than the Malays and non-Malays in the world according to Awang Selamat)

I just wonder what does MCA stands for, apart from their advertisement that they are always “fighting” for the Chinese. (Strange, since they are always in BN “fighting” for the rights of Chinese, just to flip it a bit, they are “fighting against” UMNO (Malays) and MIC (Indians) for “Chinese” interest so one wonders why the Controlled MSM never highlight about this “in-fighting” within Barisan Nasional coalition as a matter of concern).

I suppose Tan Cheng Lock’s MCA started off wanting to Manage Chinese Affairs. I suppose during the first few years, things were fine but over the years, with a party known for perpetual internal party struggles with Many Confusing Allegations and Many Confrontational Actions being thrown about, I would not be surprised if many Malaysian Chinese feel that their interest is not being served but Merely Cast Away and Marginalized Consistently Anyway while Malays have progressed and still progressing very well in terms of their political rights.

The rallying call for UMNO is “Malay Unity” while MCA hardly exclaim “Chinese Unity”, which, in a way, the currency MCA suppose to be dealing with as BN component party but this has not been applied with diligence and focus. Maybe MCA is too generous and Making Concession Amicably all the time as they are “fighting” for the Chinese rights, whatever that means. Personally I believe in Making Considered Approach in more logical in allocating the resource of the country for social justice and public wellbeing.

During the time when Mahathir Commanded All, MCA Meekly Cruised Along, silent during the judicial crises of 1988, leading us to the Lingam Gate and incredulous rulings passed as we witness the Perak debacle today.

Hence instead of protecting Chinese rights per MCA charter, maybe there is a case that they Merely Causing Agitation to the Chinese or even Made Chinese Angry.

While Utusan Malaysia has Made Condemning Accusations against the non-malays, MCA usually pay no heed as they may understand Utusan is Merely Creating Agitation without really meaning to let it degenerate into Major Conflict Anyway. Malaysia now is no longer in 1969.

Any major riot will destroy the economic pie which Malay has very substantial share and I hope Malays Can Assess this intelligently and rationally. Since Raja Niong claimed that on 1 August, RM200million or whatever were lost in few hours of protested without so much of a window being broken, I shudder to imagine what losses and harm an pre-arranged riot would cause and I hope all sensible Malaysians will not get involved.

The Cow Head Gate in Shah Alam is a case in point. MCA here did protest as much as a graveyard while after the Keris apology, there is More Clumsy Attempt from Hishammuddin to balance out the divide and rule tactics. Despite Most Condemnable Act of insensitivity, rudeness and recklessness, is MCA’s silence a sign of its Meekly Consenting Acceptance of the game? Mind you, should MBSA issues summons to the protestors for vandalizing, littering and spitting in public domain?

Annually, the Chinese top SPM and STPM top scorers cry and bitch about the scholarship hijack but one wonders if there is a case for manufactured crises for the Malaysia Complain Agency to justify its existence and says every year “Maybe Can Appeal”. Making Compassionate Appeals? More logical would be to Make Correct Allocations hence the best of our brains are developed, nurtured and retained to service the country and tax payers, rather than Money Chucked Away to less qualifying candidates.

Mind you, socially re-engineering is 1 thing but having incompetent doctors and leaders is a matter of life and death hence there is no room for Making Callous Appointments in getting the right people to do critical, life and death jobs.

Look at PKFTZ, had the parties involved Made Claims Accordingly then there is no problem but as the Pricewaterhouse report mentioned, some claims were Manipulatively Criminally Abusive, and now we Malaysians were made to pay for this Malignant Cancerous Abomination.

I am confused. The Zakaria and Toy properties were not investigated by MACC. Does that Make Corruption Acceptable? As the Teoh Beng Hock case shows, someone is still pretty against corruption practices but time of writing, we still do not know how much dirty money Teoh died for, was it RM2,400 or RM112?

The witnesses from MACC Mutters Conflicting Allegations like one said there was an argument while the other said no. Many Confusion Arises but one thing for sure, MCA seems more concern about its No.1 and former No. 2 WWF rather than some event that stirred the Chinese community here more than anything else.

After the RM10million can of worms is blown open, the Treasurer claims that MCA has …err.. RM2 billion in assets and that the alleged donation is both negligible and never been received by MCA. Fine, Money Can Accumulate but as a political party designed to assist the community it represents, how come so much money is retained and not distributed? One wonders how MCA can amass so much money also.

At the end of the day, any fight is a good fight if the fighters have noble intentions in their hearts. Whether MCA is fighting for the Chinese only or for the nation, I only hope is May Commonsense Arise and all Malaysians, regardless of racial and religious background can benefit from leaders who has Mature Caring Attitude. When time comes to exercise our democratic rights hopefully the quality of leadership available for Malaysians May Change Altogether.

Let Malaysians advertise Pendet and wayang

The Jakarta Post/Asia News Network
By: Riyadi Suparno

We Indonesians are simply overreacting in our response to Malaysia's use of the Balinese Pendet dance in promotional TV spots. We are acting like a big brother and bullying our younger brother. And such responses will not help us become a better nation.

First, it was a small protest from a group of Balinese people, the rightful owner of the dance, then unfortunately it grew into a nationwide condemnation of Malaysia.

Just read the comments posted at www.thejakartapost.com or many other Internet forums discussing the issue, and you will easily find many condemnations from Indonesians against Malaysia, some even urging the government to ganyang (invade) Malaysia, invoking memories of the time Indonesia was in confrontation with Malaysia.

Unwisely, the government responded in the same way, with the tourism minister summoning the Malaysian embassy's top official and sending a letter of protest to his counterpart in Kuala Lumpur.

But it did not stop there. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono joined the fray, calling on the Malaysian government to deal more carefully with "sensitive" cultural issues between the two countries.

Our responses have really gone too far. Just read this news from Antara: Diponegoro University (Undip), one of Indonesia's leading institutes of higher learning, has stopped admitting Malaysian students for the 2009-2010 academic year in an expression of "nationalism".

"We have done it as a concrete expression of our sense of nationalism," Undip rector Susilo Wibowo said Tuesday as quoted by Antara, after attending a ceremony to mark the induction of new students.

But we don't know the real reasons behind it. It could be because there were no Malaysian students applying to study at the university this academic year, which begins in July.

The point here is that we just overreacted to this issue, or worse, we tried to bully one of our closest neighbors.

Malaysia uses various Asian cultural expressions, especially Chinese and Indian, in its tourism campaign "Malaysia Truly Asia". China and India have never protested Malaysia's use of their cultural heritage in its tourism campaigns.

Why then are we so angry whenever Malaysia uses our cultural heritage, including the Pendet, batik and wayang in their tourism campaigns? In reality, though, Malaysia has never claimed the Pendet as their dance, batik as their craft or wayang as their performance.
These are Indonesian cultural expressions brought to Malaysia by the millions of Indonesians who moved there, mostly as migrant workers.

If it's an issue of rights, we don't have copyrights for most of our cultural products. Much, if not the majority of our cultural heritage, was created by our ancestors for the good of society and mankind.

For instance, many of our best classical Javanese gamelan compositions were written by anonymous composers. They were composed for the kings and the people, and the composers deliberately did not put their names there, much less copyrighted them.

Before Indonesia existed, anyone could play these compositions, even people from outside the Javanese kingdom. Now that Indonesia exists, does it mean nobody outside Indonesia can play and use them in their tourism campaigns, even if they have gamelan groups in their own countries?

Currently, hundreds of gamelan groups exist outside Indonesia. If they wish to promote their groups or if their country wishes to use these gamelan groups to promote tourism, they have every right to use gamelan images in their campaign.

Thus instead of getting angry or sending letter of protests or stopping admitting Malaysian students, we should be more positive and collaborate with the Malaysian government to promote our culture in that country.

When there are more Malaysians dancing the Pendet and playing the gamelan and to Indonesian pop songs, it will only mean more benefits, and not losses, to Indonesia. It will mean more commerce and tourism between the two countries.

Not only that, it would also strengthen cultural ties between the two nations.

Similarly, if Malaysia advertises more Indonesian cultural heritage, it would bring more benefits than losses to us.

Lets say, Malaysia advertises the Pendet, and tourists go there because of the advertisement. There is a great chance these tourists will continue on to Bali to see the Pendet at its source. So it not only saves us precious advertising dollars - which we rarely ever spend anyway - but also brings in dollar from more tourist visits.
So let Malaysians dance our Pendet and play our wayang and advertise them. It will only do good things for us in Indonesia.