An imaginary address to malapportionment

The famous retiree, Mr. Ng Chak Ngoon has certainly attracted national attention with his malapportionment  bombshell in the PSC hearing for electoral reform in Sabah. With BN only needing around 15% of the votes to secure a simple majority in parliament, no wonder Najib expressed his  confidence in the just concluded UMNO AGM that UMNO will win the general election yet again.

Inspired by Mr. Ng’s call, I did some number crunching over the weekend.  And I found a  near prefect “75% - 25%” rule at work.

Total number of registered voters for GE2008 was 10,923,140 (that would include people above 100 years old voters as well as phantom voters as well) and the total number of parliamentary seats is 222. In order to truly reflect 1 voice 1 vote a parliamentary constituency should be made up to 49,199 (ie. 10,923,140 divided by 222) or round up to 50,000 voters per seat.

As the 75% - 25% rule is at work, you will note that
# 75% of the parliamentary constituencies have registered voters below 50,000
# 25% of the parliamentary constituencies have registered voters above 50,000

Of the 75% constituencies with less than 50,000 registered voters – 75% of the seats are won by BN (remaining 25% go to PR)
Of the 75% constituencies with more than 50,000 voters75% of the seats are won by PR (remaining 25% go to BN)

If you look at the top 24 MAJORITY seats, you will find 79% of the seats are won by PR with majority many times over total registered voters of Putrajaya (a mere 6,608 with 5,416 turned out to vote – just fill up stadium hoki Tun Razak whose capacity is 5,000)

So what if I play with the number of voters in Selangor in an imaginary re-delineation exercise? Working with 50,000 voters per constituency, with a 15% tolerance factor as proposed by Bersih:
·         The 15% tolerance range dictate that an average constituency size should consist of between 42,500 to 57,500 number of registered voters

·         For example, if you look at  Kelana Jaya, PJ Utara dan Selatan, Subang and Shah Alam, total number of registered voters there is 389,206 – given 9 seats, the average number of voters per seat should be 43,243 within the range of the above range, instead of the present 5 seats only.

·         The above would be similar to size of certain BN seats such as Tawau (42,560 registered voters), Kota Belud (43,071), Kuala Pilah (42,328), Alor Gajah( 54,097) and Jempol (53,478).

·         Number of seats in Selangor should be increased from the present 22 seats (5 seats to BN and 17 seats to PR) to 32. Base on present seats ratio as well as voting trend BN would have circa 20% of the seats; the revised parliamentary seats should be 7 to BN and 25 to PR.

* before certain people jump on me, yes it is purely a numerical exercise but in reality there are a lot of other factors to determine boundaries but not withstanding that, the general picture should look like above and not like now!

When I cross the South China Sea with an excel spreadsheet (no budget for air travel and holidays) and apply the same 50,000 voters per constituency rule, Sabah’s, impact centre of the alleged project IC, 25 seats should be reduced to 19 seats.

The total tabs for these 2 frolic result in a reduction of BN seats by 4 (gain 2 in Selangor and lost 6 in Sabah) vs a net gain of 8 by PR.  A total positive gain for PR by 12 seats.
Before BN cry blue murder on me, they have a comfortable designed safety margin historically.

      - the above is courtesy of a magnificent volunteer group called Tindak Malayia

No wonder Najib is so confident.

Er…sorry, isn’t there suppose to be a PSC on electoral reform first?????


  1. very impressive.can i spread this out????it is important for those who still blind to read it in detail..then i will smack their face onto a table..for god sake..

  2. Electoral reforms and the quest for democracy in Malaysia: Dato' Ambiga Sreenevasan

  3. go aheah, Arfhatoe.

    Lee Wee Tak


    written by vhari, December 06, 2011 07:24:02

    I hope whatever E.C. does with bad objectives will backfire their objectives
    written by educationist, December 06, 2011 06:53:18

    That our GE's has been an uneven playing field for the opposition is a given!!
    That is why it is of great importance electoral reforms are in place before GE13.
    Yet, as that deceitful Peaceful Assembly Bill shows, there's no way the UMNOputras will level the playing field!!
    So, what are the options open to the rakyat?
    I wish I know and I certainly hope the PR leadership has Plan B in place when Najib calls for GE13!!
    RPK has alluded to the need to take decisive actions, that the rakyat must be prepared for bloodshed!!
    Whose blood is obvious for the samsengs and thugs in blue have shown they have no qualms on using violence on peaceful demonstrators!!
    written by flyer168, December 06, 2011 05:54:46

    Yes indeed, the possibilities are there...

    Just to share this...


    6PacRimLPolyJ169.pdf (application/pdf Object) -

    Japan's Constitution does not expressly mandate periodic census and reapportionment of electoral districts.

    The Election Law only suggests reapportionment.

    Consequently, rapid population shifts in postwar Japan created endemic voter imbalances.

    The Japanese Supreme Court has made some attempts to prod the national parliament to take ameliorative action, but the result has always been "too little, too late."

    Nevertheless, the evidence shows that the parliament does heed the Court's decisions.

    This Comment urges the Court to tighten the three to one ratio it has developed for "allowable voter imbalances to two to one or better",

    and to abandon doctrines like the "reasonable period" that postpone declarations of unconstitutionality and subsequent legislative action...."

    You be the judge.